Banking Perspectives in Guatemala

Stability and positive profitability levels are projected by the Central Bank for 2014.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

The outlook for banking is stable and with a tendency towards moderate growth. "Profitability will remain positive," said Edgar Barquín, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).

He explained to Anafredo Castellanos from that no changes are projected in the major financial indicators for next year. "In general, credit will continue with moderate growth, accompanied by low levels of delinquency with high provision coverage," he said.

For his part, Vice President of the Banguat Julio Suárez, also forecast credit growth. He said that "in 2014 it is expected that the economies in the region will grow moderately, whereby the demand for credit would remain and that would lead this indicator to keep growing dynamically."

More on this topic

Guatemala's Economy: 2019 Would Be Better

January 2019

The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.

In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.

Central American Banks: Outlook 2015

January 2015

Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.

From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":

Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year. The system's profitability will remain low, with less than 1.0% ROAA. The results are limited because of the high dependence on net interest margin (NIM) and additional expenses in provisions for loan losses, due to regulatory changes that established gradual constitutions of general provisions for the best qualified loans. In addition, Fitch does not anticipate improvements in revenue diversification and also foresees a significant revenue exchange rate differential. This last factor has a significant influence on the results of the banks in Costa Rica.

Guatemala: Macroeconomic News and Perspectives

November 2013

The Central Bank has presented its analysis of the recent performance of the economy and its arguments for maintaining the leading rate at 5%.

From a report by the Banguat:

"The performance of economic activity remains consistent with the annual estimates of GDP growth (3.2% -3.6%), which is reflected in the dynamism of some short-term indicators such as quarterly GDP, IMAE, means of payment, bank credit to the private sector, the volume of imports and exports and remittances. "

Costa Rica as seen by IMF

October 2009

Costa Rica: Staff Report for the 2009 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement.

The global crisis has hit Costa Rica hard. After experiencing an economic boom with output growth averaging 6.6 percent during 2003–2007, the Costa Rican economy decelerated sharply in 2008 as output growth turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2008 (-1.7 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year) and continued to decline in the first quarter of 2009 (-4.8 percent). A major correction in inventories and a decline in sectors most dependent on external conditions were key factors behind the slowdown. Nonetheless, the decline in output appears to be approaching an end. The index of economic activity rose 1.2 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter of 2009, as output in key sectors stabilized. At the same time, inflation remained on a firm downward path, falling from 13.9 percent in December 2008 to 5.7 percent in August 2009, its lowest level in over 30 years.

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