As a result of the economic crisis generated by the pandemic, it is estimated that four out of every five Central American companies were forced to increase their debts in order to sustain their operations.
According to the 2021 Regional Survey on economic reactivation prepared by the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Central American Isthmus (Fecamco), the resources obtained through indebtedness, served the companies to pay payroll, face rents and support operations.
The agile execution of economic stimulus programs, the considerable increase in public debt and the need to accelerate the process of economic reactivation are the lights, shadows and challenges identified a year after Alejandro Giammattei took office as president of Guatemala.
In the context of the economic crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the CABEI approved a line of credit that the Panamanian government will use to finance the general state budget and programs for health protection, education and food security.
The Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) approved $250 million as part of the Development Policy Operations Program (DPO) to the Republic of Panama to financially support the country's economic recovery, the financial agency reported.
The Costa Rican government is facing a complex scenario, since by not achieving consensus to access international loans, it will be forced to seek domestic funding sources, which would put pressure on the exchange rate and interest rates to rise.
The economic crisis that the country is going through due to the outbreak of covid-19 ended up sharpening the country's fiscal situation.
Faced with increasing chaos in Costa Rica due to demonstrations and blockades, a part of the business sector decided, unilaterally, to negotiate with representatives of the movement that incites to protest, and to reject the official call by the President of the Republic.
Although the Alvarado administration reversed the initial proposal to ask the IMF for $1.75 billion in financing and called for an inter-sectoral dialogue, Costa Rica is semi-paralyzed by the blockades that are taking place on various roads in the country.
Arguing that continuity in economic policies is expected after the change of administration in January 2020, Standard & Poor's maintained the country's credit risk rating at BB-.
From S&P report:
S&P Global Ratings confirmed its long-term sovereign credit ratings of "BB-" in long-term foreign currency and "BB" in Guatemala. The outlook for our long-term ratings remains stable.
Standard & Poor's warned that if in the coming months the political environment worsens or access to local and external financing deteriorates again, the debt note could suffer further deterioration.
Fitch Ratings kept in B+ with a negative outlook, the sovereign debt rating, arguing that "the weaknesses in public finances are reflected and the political stagnation has prevented the timely approval of reforms that address these problems."
The new fiscal rule has not been approved, and the Congressional authorization requirement for foreign loans periodically restricts Costa Rica's financial flexibility, is another of the risk qualifier's arguments.
The proportion of public debt to GDP is about to reach 60%, the maximum limit allowed by law, which will force the government to restrict capital spending in the coming years, in order to avoid further deterioration of public finances.
The Treasury authorities indicated that at the end of 2019 the country's public debt will represent 59% of production, adverse scenario for investment, because according to the fiscal rule, when the proportion reaches 60% will affect capital spending, since the government must begin to contain expenditures.
Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.
For the business sector, the issuance of $2 billion in bonds by the government is positive, since "it allowed the country to quote, for the first time in history, a bond for more than 20 years with an interest rate below 4%.
On July 17, the Panamanian government was able to issue bonds for $1.25 billion with a 3.160% interest rate and maturity in 10 years (2030), and others for $750 million with a 3.870% rate and maturity in 40 years (2060).
Moody's kept the rating of long-term issues and senior unsecured bonds at B1, arguing that there is a "solid fiscal framework that has stabilized debt at lower levels compared to its rated peers.
Honduras' fiscal balance behaves favorably with respect to GDP and has been enough to stabilize overall government debt at around 41% of GDP, Moody's report explains.
"The 'B-' rating reflects the recent history of local currency defaults, as well as the political uncertainties influencing congressional approval of key economic reform measures."
This is the second consecutive year that the agency decided not to change the country's rating, as Fitch Ratings reported a year ago that it had decided to maintain the rating of foreign currency debt at "B-", and on that occasion argued that political tensions made it difficult to reach agreements on government financing.
The rating agency decided to keep the debt rating at B3 with a stable outlook, arguing that the country's tax burden is high, but stable.
The last rating variation was made in February 2018, when it was reported that at that time the political agreement reached to approve the resources to pay pension funds and the reduction in liquidity risk based the decision of the rating agency to raise the score from Caa1 to B3.