Because the economy is on the road to rebound after a temporary slowdown, the entity forecasts that in 2019 will register a 6% increase and not 6.3%, as initially planned.
Panama's economic fundamentals remain strong. The economy is on the road to rebounding from the temporary slowdown and will be gradually converging to its potential growth of 5.5% in the medium term, explains the IMF after its last visit to the country.
Due to the eruption of the Volcano of Fire and suspension of the operations of the San Rafael mining company, combined with a drop in the international prices of sugar, coffee and natural rubber, the economy is expected to grow less in 2018.
According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the projection for economic growth for this year is currently 3.4%, with a range of between 3% and 3.8%.However, due to the events registered throughout the year, it is expected that the growth rate could be reduced to 3%.
The poor performance of the mining sector and the decline in the export price of sugar and coffee could have a negative impact on the outlook for economic growth this year.
According to Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the recent performance of short-term indicators of economic activity such as the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, imports and family remittances, among other things, they anticipate a performance consistent with the estimate for the end of the year, which ranges between 3% and 3.8%.
The Nicaraguan economy continues to record high growth rates and sustainable macroeconomic policies, with an average GDP growth of 5.2% in recent years.
Statement issued by the IMF:
IMF Concludes Staff Visit to Nicaragua
Press Release No. 16/191
April 29, 2016
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Gerardo Peraza visited Managua during April 25–29, 2016.
Just as a company can not make decisions without information regarding the course of its business, no country is able to create a long term development plan without knowing its real needs in depth .
The last census to be published is the one from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), but "... Some of the data provided are not complete for the country. "
A joint report by the Central Bank of Guatemala confirms the outlook for economic growth of between 3.3% and 3.9% for 2014.
From a summary of a report by the Banguat entitled "Economic Situation and Prospects of the country":
The world economy is recovering and the pace of growth has rebounded, particularly in advanced economies, emerging economies have weakened but are still explaining the dynamism on global growth; although downside risks are still present.
The Economic Situation report by FUSADES notes that the growth of the Salvadoran economy in the last 5 years has averaged 0.8%.
From a statement issued by the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES):
During the last five years (2009-2013), the economy has deteriorated in terms of growth and macroeconomic stability. In the first quarter 2014 performance continued to weaken, showing a clear need for a national agreement which creates the conditions of stability and growth required to tap the potential of Salvadorans.
Fitch Ratings says that the new government could increase intervention in the economy to the detriment of private investment and growth.
The rating agency foresees a continuation of the tensions between the government and some business organizations hindering the adoption of agreements between them that allow for growth of the economy.
As Fitch points out, "Salvador Sanchez Ceren, inherits an economy facing significant challenges in promoting private investment and growth"
Free zones, metal mining and construction led economic growth during the year, say entrepreneurs.
This was revealed by an economic assessment made by the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep). The housing sector will not register any variation because, as in 2012, 3,500 units were sold.
As for exports, the Cosep revealed that these fell by 0.58 %, which is positive according to Aguerri as they have been sustained despite a sharp fall in prices on the international market.
The area is seeing new banks, restaurants, hotels and shopping centers as well as a boom in housing construction and the renovation of transport systems.
The Comptroller General of the Republic, has revealed that at the end of 2012 the value of gold exports reached $115.7 million. "So far, the only company in the process of exploitation is Petaquilla Gold, though it is expected that the end of 2016 will see the start of the Cobre Panama project (as it was called by Minera Panama, predecessor in the concession), now First Quantum", reported Laestrella.com.pa.
In March 2013 the IMAE grew by 5.92% compared to 13.75% in March 2012, making it the lowest month of growth in the last 24 months.
According to the economist Aristides Hernandez, the slowdown revealed in these numbers is greater than expected and he insists that this is already being reflected in the collection of revenue, showing that the warnings that had issued have born true.
Panama’s economy continues to grow strongly, buoyed by the Panama Canal expansion and large public infrastructure projects.
With average annual growth rates of 8.5 percent, Panama’s per capita GDP has more than doubled over the past decade. This impressive growth performance has been driven by a steady rise in public and private investment in a stable economic environment buttressed by prudent policies.
For the second consecutive year, the Nicaraguan economy has grown by more than 5%, maintaining the impetus registrated for 2011, when it grew by 5.4%.
The recent history of Nicaragua's economy is marked by ups and downs, averaging annual growth figures of 4%.
In presenting the macroeconomic statistics for 2012, authorities from the Central Bank of Nicaragua highlighted a record $2.677 billion in exports which is 18.3% greater than that achieved in 2011, an increase in foreign investment, which totaled $1.102 billion , and the contribution of remittances, which totaled $1.114 billion.
The Central Reserve Bank has adjusted to 1.3% - 1.5% its forecast for growth of the Salvadoran economy for 2012, from the 2% - 2.5% previously expected.
The causes of the slowdown are the sluggish economy of the United States, and the crisis in Europe.
An article in Elmundo.com.sv reports that "This is compounded by the effects that are occuring in agriculture especially the drought in the east" of El Salvador.
Driven by exports from free zones and stable prices, the country's growth has exceeded all expectations.
The main exports were from the electronics industry, represented mainly by Intel. Foreign sales from this sector increased by 43% in the first 6 months of 2012 compared with the same period last year, and contributed more than 25% to the total export growth.