Panama’s economy is expected to remain among the most dynamic in the region. The economic outlook is favorable, albeit set against the backdrop of heightened external uncertainty. Panama’s growth model relies on its ability to remain a competitive and attractive destination for international financial, business, and transportation services. Continued progress with tax transparency and financial integrity are essential to preserve this growth model. Commitment to fiscal discipline and efforts to strengthen the fiscal framework and enhance institutional capacities contribute to ensuring sustainability, and need to be complemented by a comprehensive monitoring of fiscal risks. As a regional financial center, the comprehensive monitoring of systemic risks and a strong macroprudential and crisis management framework are important to safeguard financial stability.
The Central Bank has forecast for this year inflation of 4.5% with a margin of ± 1%, and annual growth of 3.6% in exports.
From a report by the Central Bank:
The Central Bank of Honduras (BCH), through Resolution No.81-3 / 2017 of March 2, 2017, approved the 2017-2018 Monetary Program (MP), which sets out the measures for monetary, credit and exchange policy and the prospects of the Honduran economy and the international context for a two-year horizon, in order to guide operators and the general public in decision-making and formation of expectations.
The government has based its forecast of GDP growth on the recovery of activity in the Canal and public and private investment in infrastructure projects.
From a statement issued by the Ministry of Economy and Finance:
Fulfilling the legal mission to project the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) of Panama, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) has reported that the estimated growth of the economy for this year is 5.8%, driven by dynamism in the sectors of construction, mining and quarrying, financial intermediation and supply of electricity, gas and water.
If the projections of the union are accurate, between public and private investment, $900 million will be earmarked for new construction projects this year.
Although official figures have not yet been revealed, the Salvadoran Construction Chamber (Casalco) estimates that in 2016 the sector's growth was 2.5%, and realistically this year they predict an overall increase of just 1% more than last year.
The Central Bank estimates that GDP will grow between 4.5% and 5%, and inflation will be in the range of between 5.5% and 6.5%.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank:
The President of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), Ovidio Reyes Ramirez, presented on January 5, 2017 an overall assessment of the performance of the Nicaraguan economy in 2016 and also the prospects for 2017, noting that it is estimated that robust economic growth will be achieved of between 4.6 and 4.9% for 2016 for the sixth consecutive year, and annual inflation of 3.13 percent.
By 2017 the Central Bank forecasts inflation of between 2% and 4% and an annual growth rate of 4.1% in gross domestic product in the 2017-18 biennium.
From the report "Macroeconomic Program 2017-2018" by the Central Bank:
For the 2017-2018 biennium, in an expectedcontext of moderate growth in our main trading partners, a gradual return to normal international liquidity and orderedincreases in the international price of basic commodities, the macroeconomic projections include the following:
Despite the delicate fiscal context, the Central Bank forecasts GDP growth of between 2.3% and 2.6% for 2017.
In the local context, the Central Bank notes as a potential risk for economic growth the delicate liquidity problem facing the public administration, which is in addition to the structural fiscal deficit, minimizing the potential for growth.On top of his are the high costs incurred both at the public and private level to combat the violence and insecurity affecting the country.
The Bank of Guatemala has left the monetary policy rate unchanged, citing uncertainty and weakness in the international context, and expects growth of 4.9% in GDP in 2017.
In the domestic environment the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) stressed that economic activity continues to record behavior consistent with the target range for 2016 (between 3.1% and 3.7%), which is reflected in the evolution of severaleconomic activity indicators (Monthly Index of economic activity, bank credit to the private sector in domestic currency, volume of imports and remittances, among other things).
The agency highlights the country's macroeconomic stability, while noting a slight deterioration of fiscal indicators in recent years.
From a press release issued by Moody's:
New York, October 25, 2016 -- Panama's Baa2 rating with a stable outlook reflects the country's strong economy and its broad macroeconomic stability, says Moody's Investors Service. This buoyant growth will help Panama's government reduce the nation's fiscal deficit over the coming years.
Despite latent risks in the fiscal area, the Central Bank estimates growth of 2.4% for GDP, helped by an increase in consumption and low inflation.
Authorities at the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador warned that the growth forecast could be affected by possible increases in interest rates or in international oil prices.Political polarization and the delicate fiscal situation also constitute threats to the expected growth.
Key representative/s from the Guatemalan Exporters’ Association last 13-15 October attended the 8th TPO Network World Conference to exchange ideas and best practice around stimulating export-led economic growth and meeting the urgent challenges in the sector.
PRONicaragua, is the Nicaraguan Investment Promotion Agency, established in 2002. We are a non-profit, public-private institution whose mission is to generate economic growth and job creation in Nicaragua by attracting high-quality foreign direct investment. The Agency provides complimentary support services to qualified investors seeking investment opportunities in our country.
Operates in Nicaragua
Phone: (505) 2270 6400
Caribbean-Central American Action (CCAA) is a private, independent organization that promotes private sector-led economic development in the Caribbean Basin and throughout the Hemisphere.
Operates in Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Caribbean Community
Phone: (202) 331-9467