At the moment there is no external force driving significant growth in the price of coffee, expectations are between $123 up to December and $130 up to July, 2014.
The impact caused by the rust blight, rain and depreciation of currencies which forced a cut in coffee production worldwide will not be strong enough to push up the price of coffee.
In the case of Brazil, world's largest producer of coffee, weakening of its currency has boosted exports of grain, the Brazilian real experienced a contraction of 9.4% in the second quarter of this year.
The price indicator of the ICO composite fell by 1.4% in April, despite a brief recovery having been observed at mid-month, and recorded the lowest monthly average in three years.
From the monthly report on the coffee market up to April 2013 by the International Coffee Organization:
Price Development
The price of the ICO composite indicator continued to decline in April 2013 and was on average of 129.55 U.S.
The variety of coffee which is considered the best quality, is starting to have disadvantages compared to the robusta variety, both due to changes in consumer trends, as well as price.
This is the warning given by experts who gathered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to the manager of the research firm Olam Europe, Neil Rossner, the Central American countries affected by the rust blight, "failed to meet the challenge presented by Brazil and Vietnam", the world's largest producers of grain. "The Arabica segment is in crisis and the gourmet coffee strategy is threatened," he added.
Geisha, one of the finest varieties of coffee in Panama, has reached $374 a kilo, the highest price paid in the international market.
There are approximately 30 members of the Speciality Coffee Association of Panama (SCAP) who grow and export this product. "In high mountainous areas in the province of Chiriqui, located on the border with Costa Rica, some 400 miles west of Panama City, a nest of just over 40 farms grow, as well as Geisha, other varieties of fine Panamanian coffee such as Pacamara, Catuai, Caturra, Bourbon or Typica ", reported Prensa.com.
With the price gap between the two varieties having reduced, coffee roasters will use more arabica coffee in their blends.
Since 2006/07, the use of robusta coffee rose to 46% of the total, boosted by demand for cheaper varieties of this commodity in a difficult global economic scenario.
During the same period, the price of arabica coffee reached its 14-year in 2011, further increasing the use of robusta.
In South Korea per capita consumption of coffee is five times greater than that of other countries in the Asia – Pacific region.
According to a recent USDA report from the United States, per capita coffee consumption in South Korea is 5 times greater than that of other countries in the Asia – Pacific region. In 2012 this market in South Korea was quantified in $3 billion.
Although it is clear that Central American coffee farmers are suffering from a serious crisis because of the spread of the rust blight, an objective assessment is needed to address the problem responsibly and effectively.
EDITORIAL:
Newspaper reports, which have gathered statements in isolation from coffee producers and unions, are at odds with other reports which have announced increases in the current crop results compared to previous years.
Very good harvests in Vietnam and Brazil, and a drop in European demand are the factors affecting prices, which continue to decline.
Added to a persistent decline in the international prices, is the extensive affect on Central American harvests of the "Roya" blight, that is affecting an estimated 80% of plantations. The effects of the pest will be felt not only in the present harvest, but in the next.
The "Coffee and Honey Mayan Group" consists of five business from the Salvadoran coffee and honey sectors who together are making a joint effort to promote their products.
Elmundo.com.sv reports that "Five small and medium enterprises in the areas of coffee and honey will unite to form a consortium for a promotion that will allow them to facilitate the export of their products abroad through various joint activities, reported the Productive Chains Directorate of the Ministry of Economy (Minec). "
The Swiss food giant plans to increase investment in its program Nespresso AAA Sustainable Quality in Colombia, by $10 million a year for the next five years.
80% of the coffee producers attached to the Nespresso AAA Sustainable Quality Program are from Colombia, a country that in 2011 was the source of 25% of its total coffee purchases.
Now the Swiss company is extending its $30 million investment dedicated to this program, planning to spend $10 million per year over the next five years. 75% of this investment will be used to finance the price premiums that are the incentive to achieve the goals of quality and sustainability that the program requires.
After several years of significant imports, it is estimated that in 2012 the country will harvest enough coffee to meet local market demand.
Until November 2011, the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafe) recorded imports of coffee totalling 208,008 bags, each weighing 46 kilos, which is 25% more than in 2010.
Between 2008 and 2010, the volume of coffee imports increased sharply due to serious local supply problems, reported Elfinancierocr.com.
The Guatemalan chain has announced its expansion plans for 2012, with the opening of eight new stores in Guatemala and their foray into the Salvadoran market.
Walter de la Cruz, general manager of the chain said the projected investment is $1.4 million.
"By 2012 the firm's goal is to have 32 stores nationwide, and also activate international expansion, so the second half of the year could see the opening of its first store in El Salvador", published Siglo21.com.gt.
High international grain prices have aroused interest from many in the country.
Doctors, economists and lawyers are among the professionals who, for the first time, are turning their eyes towards the cultivation of coffee, due to the high prices garnered by the grain, making this crop an attractive alternative investment strategy.
This is how professionals who have had nothing to do with the coffee industry, have now begun to buy land to grow grain and sell it abroad, where interest for Honduran coffee has become much stronger.
Café Barista has confirmed its regional expansion plans for 2011; it will start in El Salvador, followed by Costa Rica and Panama.
Walter de la Cruz, president of Café Barista, told Nacion.com that they are preparing their strategic expansion plan, defining opening dates and locations.
Additionally, the company plans to open eight new stores in Guatemala, in addition to its current 17 coffee shops.
Costa Rican coffee roasters want to import coffee grain tax free due to a shortages in national production, which is denied by growers.
Costa Rica's Coffee Roasters' Association stated that in 2010 there was a 40% shortage in supplies for the internal market, which needed to be imported.
Icafé estimates annual coffee demand by the roasting sector is estimated at 400,000 hundredweight, according to Leticia Vindas on Elfinancierocr.com.