In Guatemala the union of producers has stated that a reduction in international prices is affecting the sector, which is already facing difficulties in covering production costs.
The National Coffee Association attributes the problem to international consortia, which may be exerting further downward pressure on grain prices.They warn that this situation will have a strong impact on the national economy, because with current prices, producers are not even able to cover their costs.
Climatic conditions in the first half of the year have raised the likelihood of an increase in the presence of the pest in some of the grain producing regions.
The technical department of the National Coffee Association (Anacafé) has stated that the average incidence is 11%, but in some areas in the regions 1, 2, 4 and 7, the incidence is above 20%.
A reduction has been projected of between 10% and 15% in the 2017/18 harvest due to the effects of drought and frost in different production areas in the country.
The projections are the result of an assessment carried out by the technical department of the National Coffee Association (Anacafe) in different parts of the country.For the 2017/18 harvest a production of 3.35 million hundredweight is expected.
Grain production is expected to increase from the 3.8 million in the 2014/15 harvest to 4.1 million in the current season.
The union of coffee producers anticipates better results for the 2015/16 harvest, despite the fall in international prices and the negative impact still being caused by the rust problem. Evelio Alvarado, general manager of the National Coffee Association, told Diario de Centroamerica that "...
Up to June 2014 foreign exchange earnings from grain sales abroad were $438 million, 6.9% less than in the same month in 2013.
Data from the Central Bank of Guatemala indicates that "... between October 2013 and August 2014 sales of the aromatic totaled 2,917,911 bags of 60 kilos (132 pounds), while in the previous harvest they were 3,463,541 bags which is a difference of 545 630 bags".
In October 2012 80,771 bags of coffee weighing 60 kilos were exported compared to 129,471 bags in the same month in 2012.
The data was confirmed by the National Coffee Association (Anacafé) . The current season began in October 2013 and ended in September 2014.
" ... Sales of the 2012-2013 coffee harvest totaled 3,706,622 bags of 60 kilos, a slight decrease compared to the 3,719,829 bags sold last season, despite plantations having been ravaged by the rust blight," reported Elperiodico.com.gt review.
Producers estimate that the 2012-2013 coffee harvest will be reduced by 6%, being about 4.5 million quintals, instead of the 4.8 million quintals previously projected.
Ricardo Villanueva, president of the National Coffee Association (Anacafe) said that predictions of a reduced harvest are based on the expected effects of climate change, such as virulent attacks of diseases in the plantations.
According Anacafé, international grain buyers are delaying their purchases, waiting for prices to fall.
The international price of coffee is at record levels above $ 210 per bag. Directors of the National Coffee Association (Anacafe) explained that international buyers are expecting prices to fall and added that producers are finding it difficult to sell the product at these prices in the global market.
Some 125.000 coffee quintals of the current season were lost due to ash rain caused by Pacaya volcano and Agatha tropical storm.
The Federation of Coffee Cooperatives (Fedecocagua) has large plantations close to the Pacaya Volcano, which were among the hardest hit, explained Ricardo Villanueva, president of the National Coffee Associatiion (Anacafé).
The country will export during the current harvest 4.8 million bags of 46 kilos each, 6,6% more than the previous season, 2008/2009.
Aaccording to the National Association of Coffee (Anacafé).
This level of exports will represent a $600 million revenue, 8,87% more than the $56.4 million obtained in the previous season, states Prensalibre.com.
The National Association of the Coffe Industry increased their production estimates for the 2009-2010 harvest, from 3.5 to to 3.85 million 60-kilogram sacks.
With this new forecast, production would increase 17% in comparison to the previous cycle.
"Good growth conditions are appearing at times when global demand for quality coffee is raising, as Colombia - one of the largest coffee producers of the world - is facing shortages due to adverse climate and a coffee plantation renewal program", reported newspaper La Prensa Gráfica in its website.