Coffee exports declined in the last two months because the new crop from Brazil has not yet hit the market, but consuming countries remain relatively well stocked.
Monday, August 15, 2016
From the report by the International Coffee Organization:
The ICO composite indicator rose to a 17-month high in July, although the market struggled to hold on to its early gains. Coffee exports have slowed in the last couple of months, as the new Brazilian crop has not yet come to market, but consumer stocks remain relatively well supplied. Furthermore, Conab released its survey of domestic private stocks as at the end of March 2016 as being just 5.4% lower than the previous year, down from 14.4 million to 13.6 million bags.
Coffee prices were mostly mixed over the course of July, with the daily price of the ICO composite indicator ending the month just 0.5 cents above where it started. Prices initially increased to a high of 137.36 US cents/lb in the middle of the month, due to a second frost scare in Brazil and a slight recovery in the Brazilian real. This was the highest daily value for the ICO composite since February 2015. However, prices then slipped to a low of 129.40, as the Colombian truckers’ strike was resolved and the threat of frost in Brazil receded.
Higher monthly averages were recorded in all four group indicator prices. Robustas saw the strongest growth, up 5.7% to 90.82 cents, their highest level since April 2015. Arabica prices also saw significant increases, with Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals up by 4.8%, 3.8% and 4.6% respectively. Nevertheless, the arbitrage between Arabica and Robusta widened for the second consecutive month, despite their respective supply prospects.
Prices for all coffee groups fell in July 2018, though the largest month-on month decrease occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which declined by 4% to 110.54 US cents/lb.
From the monthly report by the ICO:
In July 2018, the ICO composite indicator price decreased by 2.9% to an average of 107.20 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly average for July since 2007, when the monthly composite indicator reached 106.20 US cents/lb.
International prices deepened their fall in July in response to the devaluation of the real in Brazil, reaching the lowest level in the last 18 months.
From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:
The coffee market registered further decreases in July with prices reacting to the depreciation in the Brazilian exchange rate, which dropped to a 12-year low against the US dollar.
The climate in Brazil was the main factor affecting the behavior of the international price of the grain in January, starting the month high and closing at $143.43 per pound.
From the Coffee Market Report - January 2015 by the International Coffee Organization (ICO):
Dry weather in Brazil at the beginning of January spurred prices higher, with the daily price of the ICO composite indicator rising from 140.57 US cents/lb to a high of 155.40 by the middle of the month. However, forecasts of rain later in the month punctured this brief rally,causing the ICO composite to fall back down to 143.43 cents by the end of January.Nevertheless, overall rainfall levels in Brazil remain below average, with the development of the 2015/16 crop now at a crucial stage. Furthermore, an infestation of coffee berry borer has led to a state of phytosanitary emergency being declared in the states of São Paulo and Espírito Santo.
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