For the last four years the loan portfolio of the Salvadoran financial system has been growing at an average rate of 3.5%, below the 11% growth average in the rest of the region.
Monday, August 11, 2014
A report produced by the rating agency Moody's notes that growth in El Salvador's financial sector has been stagnant since 2010, as the total loan portfolio has not achieved growth rates above 3.5% per year.
A statement about the report published by Moody's notes that "... this low growth is due to the lack of dynamism in the Salvadoran economy."
Regarding the performance of the financial system in Central America, it notes that "...The key risk in the performance of banks is focused on the the Isthmus' dependence on the economic performance of the United States, high levels of dollar funding and the challenge of extending credit to the informal sector. "
"...Continued economic growth will benefit banks in Central America, but the region's dependence on a still moderate recovery in the United States, high dollarization and high levels of economic inequality and informality are still key risks.
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The high levels of unemployment and the poor growth of credit are factors that have worsened in the context of the economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19, which has led to the deterioration of the credit record of customers.
For Moody's, the expansion of the Panamanian economy forecast for the next few years would allow bank credit to grow 8% in 2019 and 9% in 2020.
According to estimates by analysts of the rating agency Moody´s Investors Service is that for the 2019-2014 five-year period is that the Panamanian economy will achieve growth between 5% and 5.5%, behavior that will favor the dynamism of the banking sector.
The deterioration of the economy and rising unemployment are the main reasons behind the difficulties faced by companies and individuals in Costa Rica in paying back their bank loans.
According to figures from the General Superintendence of Financial Entities, between January 2017 and July 2018, the percentage of loans in defaults for more than 90 days or in judicial collection, went from 1.65% to 2.51%, showing an upward trend in recent months.
Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.
From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":
Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year. The system's profitability will remain low, with less than 1.0% ROAA. The results are limited because of the high dependence on net interest margin (NIM) and additional expenses in provisions for loan losses, due to regulatory changes that established gradual constitutions of general provisions for the best qualified loans. In addition, Fitch does not anticipate improvements in revenue diversification and also foresees a significant revenue exchange rate differential. This last factor has a significant influence on the results of the banks in Costa Rica.
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