Agricultural Prices in the Coming Years

FAO´s outlook for agricultural development during the decade 2010 - 2019 portends higher prices of products and agricultural commodities.

Friday, January 7, 2011

The average crop prices over the next ten years for commodities is projected to be higher than the levels of the past decade, before the 2007 – 2008 peak, both in real and nominal terms (adjusted for inflation).

It is projected that the average price for wheat and grains will be about 15% to 40% higher in real terms compared with the 1997-2006 period, while real prices for vegetable oils is expected to be 40% higher. World sugar prices for 2019 will also be above the average of the previous decade, but well below the 29 year record experienced in late 2009.

For livestock products it is expected for the average beef prices, unlike pork, to exceed over the next decade the average for the period 1997-2006, initially due to decreasing offer, higher feed costs and growing demand. Real prices of pork should remain relatively depressed due to an anticipated increase in supply from Brazil and China.

The economic recovery will strengthen beef consumption in relation to cereals, specifically in developing countries, with most favoring the cheapest meats, poultry and pork meat. It is expected that average prices for dairy products to be between 16% and 45% higher during the period 2010-2019 compared to the period 1997-2006; with butter prices showing the most gains, supported by higher prices for vegetable oils and energy.

The bio-fuel market will depend heavily on government mandates and incentives, but the outlook remains uncertain due to unpredictable factors such as future trend in oil prices, changes in intervention policies and advances in second generation technologies. The continuing expansion of bio-fuel production to meet mandatory uses will create additional demand for wheat, grains, sugar and vegetable oils to be used as raw materials.

More on this topic

Global Food Prices up to November 2016

December 2016

The decline in the FAO food price index in November was due to a sharp fall in sugar prices, which more than offset a sharp spike in prices of vegetable oils.

From a statement issued by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization:

Global Food Prices - August 2016

September 2016

Except for cereals, in August prices rose for all commodities covered by the FAO food price index, led by dairy, oils and sugar.

From a statement issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization:

 The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 165.6 points in August 2016, up 3 points (1.9 percent) from July and almost 7 percent above the corresponding period last year.

Global Food Prices in March 2016

April 2016

The FAO food price index rose slightly in March due to sharp increases in prices of sugar and palm oil.

From a press release by the Food and Agriculture Organization:

The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 151.0 points in March 2016, up 1.0 percent from February, but almost 21 points (12.0 percent) below its March 2015 level.

Food prices continue uprising

March 2011

Global food prices increased for the eighth consecutive month in February, with prices of all commodity groups monitored rising again, except for sugar, FAO said today.

» The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the eighth consecutive month, averaging 236 points in February 2011, up 2.2 percent from January and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since January 1990, the inception date of the index.

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